Index Update: The Nifty 50 gained 2.19% to close at 23,328.55 on Tuesday, trading above key moving averages but still below a descending trendline. Recent bullish candlestick patterns suggest a potential recovery, though momentum remains modest. The RSI at 55.97 indicates mild bullish bias near neutral territory. Key support and resistance levels will be crucial in the coming sessions as the index seeks a clearer directional breakout. Caution and close monitoring are advised.

Macro Update: India's trade deficit widened to $21.5B in March 2025 as imports surged 11.4%. Wholesale inflation eased to 2.05% YoY, led by cooling food prices, despite rising manufacturing costs. Industrial output growth slowed to 2.9% in February, reflecting broad sectoral weakness. Export growth remained tepid, pressured by global trade tensions ahead of potential U.S. tariffs.

Top Market Movers: On Tuesday, IndusInd Bank Ltd (NSE: INDUSINDBK) led the gainers with a 6.73% increase, closing at INR 735.90 followed by Shriram Finance Ltd (NSE: SHRIRAMFIN) up 5.20% at INR 672.00, and Tata Motors Ltd (NSE: TATAMOTORS) which rose 4.56% to INR 622.20. On the downside, ITC Ltd (NSE: ITC) saw the largest drop, falling 0.27% to INR 420.40, followed by Hindustan Unilever Ltd (NSE: HINDUNILVR) down 0.20% to INR 2,361.50.

Commodity Update: The dollar remained steady on Tuesday but stayed close to recent lows against the euro and yen amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. tariff changes. Gold rose 0.38% to $3,238.40, while silver slipped 0.12% to $32.20. Copper edged up 0.06% to $9,193.20. Brent crude gained 0.42% to $65.515, supported by possible U.S. tariff exemptions and a rebound in Chinese oil imports ahead of potential Iranian supply cuts.

Our Stance: The Nifty’s rebound signals cautious optimism, supported by select stock gains. However, macro pressures like a widening trade deficit and slowing industrial output, alongside global tariff risks, warrant vigilance. Mixed commodity trends reflect ongoing uncertainty. Sustained momentum and policy clarity will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence in the near term.

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