Index Update: The Nifty 50 jumped 1.29% to close at 25,112.40, staying above its 51-day EMA of 24,471.98, signaling continued bullish momentum. The RSI at 59.09 indicates steady strength with scope for further upside. Key support is seen at 24,600, maintaining the broader breakout structure. A decisive move above the 25,200 resistances could trigger fresh bullish momentum while holding current levels supports a positive near-term outlook.

Macro Update: The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.39% as safe-haven demand rose amid Middle East tensions and a cautious Fed stance. With the Fed projecting two rate cuts in 2025 and warning of tariff-driven inflation, global risk sentiment remains fragile. For India, this may trigger capital flow volatility and currency pressure, keeping RBI alert on inflation and rupee stability.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Jio Financial Services Ltd (NSE: JIOFIN) led the gainers with a 3.57% increase, closing at INR 294.25 followed by Bharti Airtel Ltd (NSE: BHARTIARTL) up 3.18% at INR 1,936.70, and Trent Ltd (NSE: TRENT) which rose 3.04% to INR 5,897.50. On the downside, Bajaj Auto Limited (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO) saw the largest drop, falling 1.47% to INR 8,371.00 followed Hero MotoCorp Ltd (NSE: HEROMOTOCO) down 1.04% to INR 4,338.50 and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (NSE: MARUTI), which dropped 0.12% to INR 12,791.00.

Commodity Update: The dollar is poised for its biggest weekly gain in over a month amid heightened Middle East tensions, driving demand for safe-haven assets. Gold dropped 1.04% to $3,372.40, silver slid 1.55%, and copper eased 0.10%. Brent crude fell 1.90% to $77.33 after the White House said President Trump would decide on Iran-Israel war involvement in two weeks, though crude remained on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.

Our Stance: Nifty’s strong close above key support suggests continued bullish momentum, though global risks warrant caution. Geopolitical tensions, Fed’s rate outlook, and tariff-driven inflation could impact capital flows and currency stability. Focus remains on resilient domestic sectors like telecom and financials, while auto stocks may underperform amid broader macro-driven volatility.

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