Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 108.50 points to close at 25,114.00, reclaiming the 25,000 mark and improving sentiment. The index stayed above both the 21-day and 50-day SMAs, with the latter offering crucial support. Momentum is likely to strengthen if the index moves past 25,200, while 24,350.70 remains the critical support level along the falling trendline, which would help avoid deeper corrections.

Macro Update: The yield on India’s benchmark 10-year government security declined to approximately 6.45% in mid-September, approaching a four-week low. This movement reflected a broader softening in global yields, influenced by increasing speculation around potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The downward trend followed weaker-than-expected US jobless claims data and a marginal rise in inflation, which have collectively reinforced expectations of monetary easing by the Fed both later this month and toward year-end. On the domestic front, investor sentiment has been tempered by recent US tariff hikes on Indian exports, which may pose headwinds to growth and weigh on the rupee. Additionally, concerns over India’s fiscal position persist, though Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reaffirmed the government’s commitment to keeping the fiscal deficit within the 4.4% target for the year, indicating no intention to raise additional debt for expansionary spending.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Bharat Electronics Limited (NSE: BEL) led the gainers with a 3.71% increase, closing at INR 399.45 followed by Bajaj Finance Limited (NSE: BAJFINANCE) up 3.34% at INR 1,002.70, and Bajaj Finserv Limited (NSE: BAJAJFINSV) which rose 2.23% to INR 2,083.20. On the downside, Eternal Limited (NSE: ETERNAL) saw the largest drop, falling 1.90% to INR 321.85 followed by Hindustan Unilever Limited (NSE: HINDUNILVR) down 1.53% to INR 2,582.00 and IndusInd Bank Limited (NSE: INDUSINDBK), which dropped 1.02% to INR 741.00.

Commodity Update: The dollar weakened Friday as higher U.S. jobless claims and a slight rise in inflation reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold gained 0.23% to $3,685.85, silver climbed 0.87% to $42.51, and copper edged up 0.16% to $10,080.20. Brent crude slipped 0.50% to $66.03, pressured by weak demand and ample supply, though supported by geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside potential U.S. sanctions on Moscow.

Our Stance: Indian equity markets extended their gains, with the BSE Sensex advancing 182 points, or 0.2%, to reach 81,731 in morning trade on Friday — the highest level observed since late August. This marked the fifth consecutive session of gains, mirroring the positive tone set by Wall Street amid growing confidence in a possible US rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Optimism was further supported by renewed hopes of progress in trade discussions between the US and India. However, caution prevailed ahead of the domestic inflation release for August, expected later in the day.

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