Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 0.05% to 24,631.30 but remained below its 50-day SMA of 25,020.56 and above the key support level of 24,400. The RSI at 44.54 reflects consolidation amid lingering downside pressure. Immediate support is at 23,900, and a breach could deepen losses. On the upside, resistance is near 24,800, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a short-term rebound toward 25,200.

Macro Update: India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $27.35 billion in July, marking its highest level since November 2024. The increase in exports to $37.24 billion appears linked to exporters anticipating upcoming U.S. tariffs, which may have temporarily boosted outbound shipments. However, the potential for an additional 25% tariff from the U.S. later in August—reportedly in response to India’s re-export of Russian energy—could weigh on key sectors such as automotive, chemicals, and refining. Imports remained elevated at $64.59 billion, sustaining pressure on the trade balance.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Wipro Limited (NSE: WIPRO) led the gainers with a 2.01% increase, closing at INR 246.50 followed by Eternal Limited (NSE: ETERNAL) up 1.71% at INR 317.70, and Infosys Limited (NSE: INFY) which rose 1.50% to INR 1,448.00. On the downside, Tata Steel Limited (NSE: TATASTEEL) saw the largest drop, falling 2.81% to INR 155.68 followed Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (NSE: ADANIPORTS) down 1.38% to INR 1,301.40 and Hero Motocorp Limited (NSE: HEROMOTOCO), which dropped 1.27% to INR 4,708.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar hovered near multi-week lows Thursday as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Gold rose 0.18% to $3,414.50, silver gained 0.42% to $38.76, and copper inched up 0.19% to $9,827.40. Brent crude climbed 0.43% to $65.91, rebounding from the prior session’s sell-off, with the upcoming Trump–Putin meeting adding risk premiums to the market.

Our Stance: Broader positive indicators—such as easing inflation, supportive domestic consumption, fiscal stimulus measures, and improving rural demand—have also underpinned a cautiously optimistic medium-term outlook, with UBS projecting an ~8% rise in the Nifty over the next year.

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