Index Update: The Nifty 50 gained 180.85 points to close at 25,875.80, maintaining levels above key support zones. The index remains comfortably positioned above the 51-day EMA at 25,272.45, underscoring strong underlying support. The RSI at 61.27 signals steady bullish momentum, keeping the broader outlook positive. Immediate support is placed near 25,200, while resistance is seen around 26,300. A sustained move above 25,670 could further reinforce the ongoing upward bias and lift near-term sentiment.

Macro Update:  Air cargo movement between India and the United States has fallen to its lowest level in nine years, primarily due to steep tariff hikes introduced by the Donald Trump administration. According to official data from India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation, exports to the US dropped to 4,319 tonnes between January and June 2025, compared to 7,152 tonnes during the same period last year. Even during the pandemic years, freight volumes remained higher, ranging from 5,000 to 9,000 tonnes. The last time trade levels were this low was in 2016, when shipments totaled 3,750 tonnes.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Asian Paints (NSE: ASIANPAINT) led the gainers with a 6.58% increase, closing at INR 2,832.00 followed by Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT) up 5.00% at INR 2,485.20 and Tech Mahindra Ltd (NSE: TECHM) which rose 3.48% to INR 1,475.00. On the downside Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles Ltd (NSE: TMCV) saw the largest drop, falling 1.49% to INR 330.00 followed by Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (NSE: TMPV) down 1.30% to INR 402.30 and Tata Steel Limited (NSE: TATASTEEL), which dropped 1.29% to INR 178.70.

Commodity Update: The dollar slipped on Wednesday after weak U.S. private-sector jobs data heightened concerns about labor market health. Investors awaited the expected reopening of the U.S. government, which could trigger a flood of delayed economic reports. Gold rose 0.37% to USD 4,131.40 per ounce, silver gained 0.75% to USD 51.12, and copper inched up 0.02% to USD 10,834.20. Brent crude eased 0.20% to USD 65.04 amid hopes of a shutdown resolution.

Our Stance: In a positive development, President Trump announced that his administration plans to reduce tariffs on Indian goods, signaling progress in resolving ongoing trade tensions. The news lifted investor sentiment, with the BSE Sensex climbing 545 points (0.7%) to 84,417, marking its highest level in two weeks. Market optimism was further supported by progress in the US Senate toward ending the government shutdown and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Domestically, traders awaited October inflation data—expected to slow to 0.48%, the lowest in over a decade—while exit polls from the Bihar Assembly elections suggesting an NDA victory added to the upbeat market mood.

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