Index Update: The Nifty 50 inched up 3.35 points to close at 25,879.15, holding firm above key support zones. The index continues to trade comfortably above the 51-day EMA at 25,297.54, highlighting strong underlying support. The RSI at 61.36 reflects steady bullish momentum, keeping the broader outlook positive. Immediate support is placed near 25,200, while resistance is positioned around 26,300. A sustained move above 25,670 could further strengthen the prevailing upward bias and improve near-term sentiment.

Macro Update:  The Indian rupee hovered near 88.6 per U.S. dollar, trading close to record lows but holding firm as the RBI continued to defend the 88.80 mark. Subdued inflation data reinforced expectations that the central bank may cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with another reduction possible in early 2025 to support growth amid trade challenges and slowing momentum. Investors remained cautious ahead of Friday’s Bihar state election results, seen as a key indicator for political stability and policy direction. Meanwhile, anticipation of a breakthrough in U.S.-India trade negotiations kept traders attentive, with analysts suggesting that a finalized agreement could strengthen the rupee and attract foreign investment inflows.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Asian Paints (NSE: ASIANPAINT) led the gainers with a 3.77% increase, closing at INR 2,874.00 followed by Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE: HINDALCO) up 2.47% at INR 814.00 and InterGlobe Aviation Limited (NSE: INDIGO) which rose 1.99% to INR 5,911.00. On the downside ETERNAL LIMITED (NSE: ETERNAL) saw the largest drop, falling 3.69% to INR 297.40 followed by Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles Ltd (NSE: TMCV) down 2.84% to INR 320.10 and Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE: M&M), which dropped 1.46% to INR 3,699.40.

Commodity Update: The yen hovered near a record low against the euro and a nine-month low versus the dollar after Japan’s new prime minister urged the central bank to proceed cautiously on rate hikes. Gold slipped 0.25% to USD 4,202.90 per ounce, while silver and copper edged higher. Brent crude dipped 0.03% to USD 62.69 as rising U.S. inventories fueled concerns over ample global supply amid subdued demand.

Our Stance: Market sentiment improved following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and renewed optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-India trade agreement. Adding to the positive tone, India’s retail inflation eased sharply to a record low of 0.25% in October, well below the Reserve Bank of India’s target range, fueling expectations of an interest rate cut in December. Gains were driven largely by metals, banking, and realty stocks, while weakness in the technology and auto sectors restrained broader advances.

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