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Nifty Holds Above Support, Easing CPI Fuels Rate-Cut Optimism

Nifty Holds Above Support, Easing CPI Fuels Rate-Cut Optimism

Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 0.54% to 24,619.35 but remained below its 50-day SMA of 25,022.95 and above the key support level of 24,400. The RSI at 44.13 reflects consolidation amid lingering downside pressure. Immediate support is at 23,900, and a breach could deepen losses. On the upside, resistance is near 24,800, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a short-term rebound toward 25,200.

Macro Update: India’s annual CPI eased to 1.55% in July 2025, the lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band, driven by steep food price declines. With nine straight monthly falls, the trend strengthens expectations of another rate cut, as housing inflation stayed stable and transport costs eased.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd (NSE: APOLLOHOSP) led the gainers with a 7.90% increase, closing at INR 7,808.50 followed by Hindalco Industries Ltd (NSE: HINDALCO) up 5.01% at INR 700.50, and Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (NSE: DRREDDY) which rose 2.71% to INR 1,253.40. On the downside, IndusInd Bank Ltd (NSE: INDUSINDBK) saw the largest drop, falling 1.23% to INR 773.45 followed Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ld (NSE: ADANIPORTS) down 0.82% to INR 1,319.60 and Titan Company Ltd (NSE: TITAN), which dropped 0.57% to INR 3,466.80.

Commodity Update: The dollar weakened on Wednesday after soft U.S. inflation data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut next month, while President Trump's political moves further pressured the currency. Gold rose 0.12% to $3,402.90, silver gained 0.59% to $38.22, and copper edged up 0.06% to $9,834.55. Brent crude was flat at $66.15 after a prior drop, as rising U.S. crude stockpiles signaled the summer demand season’s end.

Our Stance: The market shows signs of consolidation with Nifty 50 holding above key support but below its 50-day SMA. Easing CPI strengthens prospects for a rate cut, potentially supporting sentiment. Sectoral strength in healthcare and metals offsets selective weakness, while commodities react to softer U.S. inflation and global supply cues.

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