Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 32.15 points to close at 24,773.15, retreating from intraday highs as sentiment stayed cautious. The index trades above its 21-day SMA, offering dynamic support, though rebound scope remains limited. A sustained move above the 50-day SMA is needed for recovery. On the downside, support at 24,350.70, aligned with a falling trendline, remains crucial to avoid deeper corrective pressure.

Macro Update: India’s GDP may shrink by 0.5%–0.6% in FY2025-26 due to Trump’s 50% tariffs on imports. However, the government retains its 6.3%–6.8% growth forecast, supported by a robust 7.8% Q1 expansion and consumption gains from recent GST cuts and oil imports.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Tata Motors Ltd (NSE: TATAMOTORS) led the gainers with a 4.02% increase, closing at INR 719.50 followed by Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd (NSE: M&M) up 3.93% at INR 3,701.40, and Bajaj Auto Ltd (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO) which rose 3.84% to INR 9,433.50. On the downside, Trent Ltd (NSE: TRENT) saw the largest drop, falling 3.85% to INR 213.00 followed Asian Paints Ltd (NSE: ASIANPAINT) down 1.90% to INR 2,530.80 and Nestle India Ltd (NSE: NESTLEIND), which dropped 1.72% to INR 1,187.70.

Commodity Update: The dollar wavered on Monday after weak U.S. labour data reinforced expectations of a rate cut, while the yen slid on political uncertainty following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation. Commodities showed mixed trends: gold slipped 0.51% to $3,634.45, silver fell 0.49% to $41.34, and copper gained 0.23% to $9,910.35. Brent crude rose 0.60% to $65.90, supported by slower OPEC+ production hikes and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Our Stance: Cautious market sentiment persists despite modest Nifty gains, as key support levels remain vital. Growth forecasts stay intact amid tariff-related headwinds, while commodities reflect mixed trends with crude benefiting from supply constraints and gold retreating on easing rate hike fears, underscoring uncertainty across global markets.

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