Index Update: The Nifty 50 advanced 167.35 points to close at 25,342.75 after a gap-up opening, finishing near the day’s high. Despite the rebound, the index continues to trade below its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,899.49, which remains an immediate resistance area. Momentum has improved, with the RSI recovering to 40.45, indicating stabilisation from lower levels. On the downside, support is placed around 25,000, while resistance is seen near 26,500. A sustained move above 26,350 would be required.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield climbed to ~6.7%, a 10-month high, driven by heavy borrowing expectations, elevated bond supply, and rising short-term rates, despite RBI liquidity support. Meanwhile, the rupee hit a record low near 91.7/USD amid sustained capital outflows, equity market losses, fiscal uncertainty, and heightened risk aversion ahead of the Union Budget.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) led the gainers with a 8.91% increase, closing at INR 453.00 followed by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (NSE: ONGC) up 8.32% at INR 268.58 and Coal India Ltd (NSE: COALINDIA) which rose 5.00% to INR 444.05. On the downside followed Tata Consumer Products Ltd (NSE: TATACONSUM) saw the largest drop, falling 4.68% to INR 1,131.80 followed Asian Paints Ltd (NSE: ASIANPAINT) down 4.23% to INR 2,511.80 and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (NSE: MARUTI), which dropped 2.41% to INR 14,877.00.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar hovered near four-year lows on Wednesday, facing a growing crisis of confidence after President Donald Trump downplayed its recent weakness, which accelerated selling pressure and boosted the yen, euro, and sterling. Gold surged 3.07% to USD 5,277.10, silver jumped 8.69% to USD 115.12, and copper rose 1.35% to USD 13,205.40. Brent crude gained 0.10% to USD 67.66, supported by tighter U.S. supplies amid extreme cold.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautiously constructive, supported by index recovery and selective stock outperformance. However, elevated bond yields, persistent rupee weakness, and heavy borrowing expectations continue to cap upside potential. Near-term direction is likely to remain range-bound, with investor focus on macro stability, fiscal clarity, and sustained improvement in risk appetite.

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