Index Update: The Nifty 50 rose 262.95 points to close at 25,088.40 after a gap-down opening, recovering from the day’s low to finish near the session high. Despite the rebound, the index remains below its 50-day Simple Moving Average at 25,829.19, which continues to cap upside. Momentum remains subdued, with the RSI at 39.20 indicating stabilisation from lower levels. Immediate support is placed near 25,000, while resistance is seen around 26,500, with a sustained move above 26,350 needed to improve near-term confidence.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year government bond yield rose to a one-year high of around 6.76%, pressured by a sharply higher FY27 gross borrowing target of ₹17.2 trillion. Elevated supply, limited investor incentives, and weak capital flows are straining demand, keeping yields firm despite the RBI’s ongoing secondary-market bond purchases.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (NSE: POWERGRID) led the gainers with a 7.58% increase, closing at INR 270.40 followed by Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (NSE: TMPV) up 5.30% at INR 362.90 and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (NSE: ADANIPORTS) which rose 4.33% to INR 1,403.10. On the downside followed Shriram Finance Ltd (NSE: SHRIRAMFIN) saw the largest drop, falling 3.56% to INR 962.10 followed Axis Bank Ltd (NSE: AXISBANK) down 2.16% to INR 1,311.50 and Max Healthcare Institute Ltd (NSE: MAXHEALTH), which dropped 1.90% to INR 958.10.

Commodity Update: The dollar firmed on Monday after precious metals faced sharp losses last week, driven by profit-taking and lingering uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. Gold slipped 0.19% to USD 4,736.00, while silver rebounded 2.39% to USD 80.84. Copper declined 2.72% to USD 12,804.80. Brent crude fell 3.30% to USD 67.07 as easing U.S –Iran tensions and unchanged OPEC+ output prompted profit booking.

Our Stance: Markets show a technical rebound but remain structurally cautious. Elevated bond yields, heavy government borrowing, and subdued momentum indicators continue to cap equity upside. Near-term sentiment hinges on sustained index strength above key resistance and stabilisation in global rates and commodity trends.

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