Index Update: The Nifty 50 advanced 178.05 points to close at 25,323.55, maintaining a strong position above the 51-day SMA at 24,891.21, which continues to act as a solid support zone. The RSI at 60.49 indicates sustained positive momentum despite recent mild corrections. A decisive move above 25,500 could reignite upward momentum, while immediate support lies at 24,900, followed by 24,400. Overall, the broader trend remains constructive as long as key supports are intact.

Macro Update: In September 2025, India’s exports rose modestly 5.2% YoY to USD 36.38 billion, constrained by delays in the US-India trade deal, while imports surged 23.8% YoY to USD 68.53 billion, driven by strong gold, energy, and electronics demand. The merchandise trade deficit widened sharply to USD 32.15 billion, marking the largest gap since November 2024.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Bajaj Finance Ltd (NSE: BAJFINANCE) led the gainers with a 4.00% increase, closing at INR 1,059.90 followed by Nestle India Ltd (NSE: NESTLEIND) up 3.90% at INR 1,221.40 and Bajaj Finserv Ltd (NSE: BAJAJFINSV) which rose 3.20% to INR 2,084.10. On the downside, Tata Motors Passenger Vhcls Ltd (NSE: TATAMOTORS) saw the largest drop, falling 1.16% to INR 390.85 followed Bajaj Auto Ltd (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO) down 1.15% to INR 8,998.00 and Infosys Ltd (NSE: INFY), which dropped 1.04% to INR 1,474.40.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments fueled expectations of an interest rate cut this month. Precious metals gained, with gold up 0.71% to $4,192.45, silver rising 1.07% to $51.15, and copper advancing 0.49% to $10,640.50. Brent crude slipped 0.19% to $62.27, extending losses amid the IEA’s supply surplus warning for 2026 and concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions impacting demand.

Our Stance: The Nifty 50 strengthened to 25,323.55, supported by key technical levels, amid positive momentum in select large-cap gainers like Bajaj Finance and Nestle. Persistent trade delays constrained exports, while soaring imports widened the deficit. Dollar weakness bolstered metals, though energy markets faced pressure from oversupply concerns and global trade uncertainties.

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