Index Update: The Nifty 50 declined 108.85 points to close at 25,585.50 after a gap-down opening, reflecting a softer near-term tone. The index finished below its 50-day SMA at 25,963.09, which continues to act as immediate resistance. The RSI slipped to 37.34, indicating weakening momentum near lower levels. On the downside, support is placed near 25,500, while resistance is seen around 26,500. A sustained move above 26,350 would be needed to improve near-term confidence.

Macro Update: India’s 10-year G-Sec yield climbed to a 10-month high of ~6.68%, tracking a sharp rise in US Treasury yields and persistent offshore paying. Despite lower state bond supply and ₹2.54 trillion RBI bond purchases, support remained limited as buying avoided benchmark securities.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (NSE: INDIGO) led the gainers with a 4.25% increase, closing at INR 4,941.50 followed by Tech Mahindra Ltd (NSE: TECHM) up 2.86% at INR 1,718.30 and Hindustan Unilever Ltd (NSE: HINDUNILVR) which rose 2.27% to INR 2,413.90. On the downside followed Wipro Ltd (NSE: WIPRO) saw the largest drop, falling 8.04% to INR 245.95 followed Reliance Industries Ltd (NSE: RELIANCE) down 3.04% to INR 1,413.60 and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (NSE: TMPV), which dropped 2.71% to INR 344.00.

Commodity Update: The dollar weakened on Monday as markets turned risk-averse following fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump linked to Europe and Greenland. Safe-haven demand lifted the yen and Swiss franc. Gold surged 1.72% to USD 4,674.70, silver jumped 5.53% to USD 93.44, and copper rose 1.25% to USD 12,965.00. Brent crude was steady at USD 64.10 amid lingering Iran supply concerns.

Our Stance: Market sentiment remains cautious as equity weakness, elevated bond yields, and global risk aversion weigh on near-term confidence. Sustained pressure from higher yields and external uncertainties may cap upside, with selective defensives and stock-specific opportunities preferred until clearer signals emerge from macro stability and index-level technical recovery.

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