Index Update: The Nifty 50 fell 112.6 points to close at 25,056.90 yet held above the 50-day SMA at 24,881.90, offering firm support. The RSI at 52.17 signals steady upward momentum, edging toward overbought territory. A breakout above 25,500 could unlock further gains, while 24,890 remains the key support to monitor for potential pullbacks.

Macro Update: The Indian rupee stayed near a record low at 88.7 per dollar, pressured by steep US tariffs and a $100,000 H-1B visa fee hike. Weak remittance prospects, softer exports, and cautious RBI intervention weighed further, while markets tracked Fed policy signals amid global economic uncertainties.

Top Market Movers: On Wednesday, Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (NSE: POWERGRID) led the gainers with a 1.63% increase, closing at INR 293.30 followed by NTPC Ltd (NSE: NTPC) up 1.34% at INR 347.60 and Hindustan Unilever Ltd (NSE: HINDUNILVR) which rose 1.03% to INR 2,549.50. On the downside, Tata Motors Ltd (NSE: TATAMOTORS) saw the largest drop, falling 2.62% to INR 682.95 followed Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) down 2.23% to INR 395.45 and Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT), which dropped 2.11% to INR 2,619.80.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar firmed from near one-week lows on Wednesday as traders priced in two more rate cuts this year, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious stance. Gold dropped 0.73% to $3,787.50, silver fell 0.98% to $44.17, and copper eased 0.09% to $9,982.10. Brent crude rose 0.40% to $67.88, supported by stalled Kurdish oil exports, a bigger U.S. inventory draw, and rising geopolitical tensions around Russia.

Our Stance: The market reflects resilience despite global headwinds, with Nifty holding above key support levels. Currency weakness and trade pressures pose risks, yet domestic inflows and sectoral strength provide stability. Commodities remain volatile, while equities show selective leadership. Momentum hinges on global cues, central bank actions, and sustained domestic demand strength.

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