Index Update: The Nifty 50 climbed 0.91% to close at 24,585.05, rebounding from the 24,400 support level but still below the 50-day SMA of 25,024.07. The RSI at 41.92 indicates improving momentum with potential for reversal. Immediate support remains at 24,400, and a breach could accelerate declines toward 23,900. On the upside, resistance is near 24,800, and a breakout may open the path for a short-term recovery toward 25,200.

Macro Update: India’s July inflation is projected to drop to an eight-year low of 1.76%, below the RBI’s 2–6% target, boosting hopes of rate cuts. Sentiment stayed cautious amid possible US tariffs on Indian goods and anticipation of the August 15 Trump–Putin Alaska meeting on the Ukraine conflict.

Top Market Movers: On Monday, Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE: ADANIENT) led the gainers with a 4.83% increase, closing at INR 2,283.40 followed by Tata Motors Ltd (NSE: TATAMOTORS) up 3.16% at INR 653.75, and Eternal Ltd (NSE: ETERNAL) which rose 2.82% to INR 309.40. On the downside, Hero Motocorp Ltd (NSE: HEROMOTOCO) saw the largest drop, falling 0.82% to INR 4,562.20 followed Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE: BEL) down 0.18% to INR 383.90 and Bharti Airtel Ltd (NSE: BHARTIARTL                ), which dropped 0.06% to INR 1,857.40.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday after last week’s losses, with traders awaiting Tuesday’s July CPI report and progress in U.S.-China trade talks to avoid higher tariffs. Gold dropped 1.50% to $3,439.10, silver fell 0.97% to $38.18, and copper gained 0.14% to $9,778.45. Brent crude slipped 0.78% to $66.07, extending a 4% weekly decline on higher U.S. tariffs, OPEC’s output hike, and optimism over a potential U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement.

Our Stance: The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic as easing inflation raises prospects of RBI rate cuts, though global trade tensions and geopolitical events cap upside potential. Technical indicators hint at a possible rebound if resistance is breached, while sectoral strength in autos and PSU banks offsets selective weakness in consumer and telecom stocks.

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