Highlights

• Analysts estimate limited short-term margin effect from new labour codes.
• Costs may gradually be passed to customers, merchants, or workers.
• Cost impact expected in a low single-digit rupee range per order.

Shares of Eternal (NSE:ETRL) and Swiggy (NSE:SWIG) saw a turbulent intraday trade on November 24. The market digested the announcement of India’s revised labour framework. Analysts reviewed the possible financial impact and expect only a modest near-term effect on earnings.

The Union government recently implemented four labour codes. These reforms consolidate multiple laws and formally recognise gig and platform workers. Food delivery and quick-commerce aggregators will contribute 1–2% of annual turnover, subject to a ceiling of 5% of payouts to workers, towards social security benefits.

Analyst commentary on costs

JM Financial expects the cost impact to remain contained at first. It estimates that a 2% turnover-based contribution would add about Rs.2.1–Rs.2.5 per order for Eternal and Swiggy across food delivery and quick commerce. On FY26 projections, this equals roughly Rs.4.3 billion for Eternal and Rs.2.6 billion for Swiggy. The brokerage notes that companies may offset the incremental expense through selective fee increases, with a Rs.2–Rs.3 rise unlikely to alter consumption patterns materially.

Morgan Stanley projects a similar range of Rs.1.5–Rs.2.5 per order. It estimates an EBITDA impact of 4–10%. The report suggests that cost adjustments may be shared across the ecosystem over time.

Bernstein expects a milder hit to profitability, around 25–70 basis points, and states that quick commerce may see more pressure than food delivery. It adds that both companies already have profitable or near-profitable unit economics, while existing insurance schemes could absorb part of the mandate.

Elara Securities also anticipates a Rs.1–Rs.2 per-order effect. It flags the possibility of temporary demand softness if fees are raised, but notes that both businesses continue engagement with regulators and already provide several worker benefits.

Outlook from brokerages

Analyst estimates indicate contained short-term financial disruption. Margin trends and pricing decisions will be monitored as the new rules are implemented across platforms.

Disclaimer:

The information available on this article is provided for education and informational purposes only. It does not constitute or provide financial, investment or trading advice and should not be construed as an endorsement of any specific stock or financial strategy in any form or manner. We do not make any representations or warranties regarding the quality, reliability, or accuracy of the information provided. This website may contain links to third-party content. We are not responsible for the content or accuracy of these external sources and do not endorse or verify the information provided by third parties. We are not liable for any decisions made or actions taken based on the information provided on this website.

Copyright 2026 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this website, or its content, may be reproduced in any form without our prior consent.